The global DRAM markets are facing an ongoing supply crisis: according to internal forecasts by one of the largest memory manufacturers, SK Hynix, growth in standard DRAM will lag behind demand until at least the end of 2028. What was previously perceived as a temporary bottleneck is developing into a structural problem, with far-reaching consequences for end customers, OEMs and the entire PC economy.
Supply vs. demand: reality speaks a clear language
SK Hynix’s internal analysis shows that commodity DRAM, i.e. classic RAM for PCs and mainstream devices, will not experience any significant increase in production in the coming years. This is not a brief supply shock, it is a protracted capitulation to reality. Manufacturers have redirected their capacities in favor of AI servers, HBM and server modules, where margins are significantly higher and long-term contracts are more predictable.
The result:
- DRAM inventories at historically low levels, tightening availability for PC manufacturers;
- Prices remain high or continue to rise because there is a wide gap between supply and demand;
- Consumer PCs are becoming more expensive without real demand in the traditional segment justifying this price increase.
Focus on server and AI segment: Strategically plausible, but brutal for consumers
SK Hynix and other large memory manufacturers are taking a conservative approach to capacity expansion: high profitability is better than overcapacity, which ultimately kills prices. Sounds like a classic, risk-averse corporate strategy, but it is a double-edged sword:
- Server DRAM is growing rapidly, driven by cloud providers, AI training, hyperscale data centers.
- The analysis predicts that the share of server DRAM will increase from 38% in 2025 to 53% by 2030, a shift that will literally bleed the traditional PC market dry.
In simple terms, the storage industry has decided that AI servers are more important than your next Windows upgrade.
SK Hynix internal analysis
▪ Supply
Excluding HBM and SOCAMM, supply bit growth for commodity DRAM is projected to be constrained through 2028.▪ Production & Inventory
While supplier inventories are being depleted to minimum levels, production Capacity is expected to see… pic.twitter.com/ITa21oKSrR— BullsLab Jay (@BullsLab) December 10, 2025
Production and inventory: The situation is worse than expected
Reports from the market indicate that certain production slots for 2026 are already sold out, and not of PC memory, but of server DRAM and HBM. This is no longer a rumor, but apparently a reality in production planning.
At the same time, stocks of PC DRAM remain extremely low, leading to poorer allocation conditions and further price increases. So if you think RAM prices are falling again, you should recalibrate your expectations.
Side battle NAND, similar story, different construction site
A similar pattern is also emerging in the NAND sector: although demand is growing overall, consumer supply here is also dominated by the server and enterprise segment. Higher margins draw resources to where the profit is and not to where demand or politics would like it to be.
Consequences for consumers and OEMs
At the end of the day, this means
- Price volatility remains, RAM and NAND will not become tangibly cheaper
- PC manufacturers are under pressure because components are expensive and in short supply
- DIY market and low-cost systems suffer, simple laptops & desktops become rarer and more expensive
- AI PCs are gaining market share, but even there the memory share is expensive
In short: The storage industry has reorganized itself and the classic PC market is the loser of this shift.
Source: BullsLab
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